Daily Semiconductor Investment Insight | October 23, 2026

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The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 6.72%, hitting a new low since July 29. Lam Research fell over 11% and KLA Corp shed more than 9%, with the memory and equipment sectors plunging in tandem. JPMorgan stated that long semiconductor positions have been largely unwound.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) has shipped the world’s first Primo Domingo gas-phase highly selective etch system. Targeting GAA, 3D NAND and 3D DRAM, the tool fills the domestic gap in highly selective etch technology.

The domestic localization rate for main-drive IGBT modules has reached 86.9%, while penetration for SiC electric control units has climbed to 30.9%; Infineon remains the leader in this segment. Since July, nearly 20 manufacturers have raised product prices by 10%–20%.

Global PCB output value is projected to reach USD 95.78 billion in 2026 (+12.5%). The PCB content per NVIDIA Rubin rack has jumped to USD 117,000 (+233%). M8 and M9 copper clad laminates are priced at 6.5× and 12.1× that of M2, respectively.

SK Hynix is moving its iHBM into mass production, delivering a 30% reduction in thermal resistance. Micron confirmed that 4F² is not on its roadmap. Bestechnic reported a 77.4% YoY drop in Q3 net profit, illustrating demand compression at end devices driven by memory price hikes.

In-depth Analysis

Optical Communications & Optical Chips: TFC Co., Ltd. (Tongfu Communication) stated that the ramp-up schedule for CPO/NPO has not seen notable changes recently. Supporting FAU and ELS components are ready for mass production, while NPO remains at the sampling stage. Supply of bottleneck materials for active devices has improved compared with H1, with gradual capacity release scheduled for Q3 and Q4. CEM’s order backlog for 800G/1.6T and silicon photonic wafer testing is full; its CPO products have passed qualification and gained customer approval. Aofei Optics reported Q3 net profit of RMB 142 million (+124.30% YoY). The sector pulled back alongside AI hardware names, with Lumentum and Coherent down 9%–12% in a single session.

Advanced Packaging & Testing:Per Goldman Sachs meeting notes, substrate capacity within NVIDIA’s supply chain will be expanded to 2.5× current levels, and CoWoS-R capacity will triple. JCET posted Q3 revenue of RMB 11.425 billion and net profit of RMB 773 million (+59.99% YoY, +39% QoQ), operating at high capacity utilization. Upstream copper clad laminates account for over 30% of PCB costs: electrolytic copper stands at RMB 109,600 per ton, 7628 electronic fabric has risen more than 70% year-to-date, and HVLP copper foil faces a 15%–25% supply gap. Kingboard has implemented eight rounds of price hikes this year, raising prices by another 15% on October 13. AI PCB supply gap stands at roughly 17%; however, 17 firms have launched capacity expansion via private placements, making concentrated supply release in 2027–2028 the key risk. No new updates on ABF substrates or domestic CBF/NBF/GBF films today.

SiC & Power Semiconductors:Among the top 10 main-drive IGBT installations in H1, domestic players captured 77.3% market share (BYD Semiconductor 27.2%, CRRC Times Electric 14%), yet profitability diverges sharply. StarSemiconductor’s net profit fell by roughly three-quarters (with depreciation of RMB 346 million); Silan Micro’s net profit attributable to parent doubled, while non-recurring net profit was flat; Hongwei Technology posted a non-recurring net loss of RMB 35.3484 million. Xinlian Integrated ranks first with a 16.9% share of SiC module shipments. Since July, nearly 20 suppliers have adjusted prices. Infineon lifted automotive-grade IGBT/SiC prices by 10%–20% in its second round of hikes, and ON Semiconductor indicated high pricing will persist through 2027. Effective 8-inch capacity contracted by 2.4%. MOSFET lead times have extended beyond 30 weeks, and automotive-grade IGBT lead times exceed 40 weeks.

Memory & Compute Chips:SK Hynix’s iHBM integrates cooling elements within the D2D PHY to cut thermal resistance by over 30%, targeted for HBM5. Micron is shifting toward 3D DRAM as its long-term roadmap. Western Digital delivered FQ1 revenue of USD 4.38 billion (+55%), beating expectations, though its stock dropped more than 8% after hours. Bestechnic’s Jan–Sep net profit declined 57.03%. Terafab is in active talks with around 10 South Korean suppliers, over half of which have signed NDAs. The project plans to reach monthly capacity of 1 million wafers within 10 years, with an initial investment of USD 16.8 billion.

Equipment & Materials:AMEC has shipped the first Primo Domingo tool. It achieves an etch selectivity of 60:1 / 90:1 for dielectric etch and 140:1 for silicon etch. In total, 54 tool types with more than 8,800 reaction chambers have been deployed across over 220 production lines. Zhongte Gas recorded Jan–Sep revenue of RMB 3.123 billion (+94.34% YoY) and net profit of RMB 661 million (+169.26% YoY); Q3 net profit surged 362.79%, while operating cash flow dropped 43.11%. Output value of Shanghai’s integrated circuit manufacturing sector rose 23.4% in the first three quarters.

Wafer Foundry: No major updates today. Samsung’s 4nm line is fully loaded, while negotiations with key 2nm customers lag. TSMC’s 2nm monthly capacity target of 120,000 wafers by year-end and Apple’s lock-in of over half of initial capacity remain unchanged.

Policy & Macro: Market impact persists from the draft revision of the Technology Export Catalogue jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology (comments due November 15), with no new US restrictions announced. Southbound capital recorded a net sell-off of HKD 9.218 billion on October 22, with SMIC seeing HKD 911 million in net selling.

Daily Investment Tips

1. Track whether price hikes can translate into profits: Q3 results for power semiconductors, PCBs and copper clad laminates only partially reflect the July price adjustments. Q4 through Q1 next year serves as the window for gross margin validation. If end-market demand continues to be eroded by memory price increases, price transmission may break downstream.

2.Localisation of equipment and materials carries higher certainty than cyclical upside. Still, watch for price reversal risks stemming from concentrated capacity ramp-ups for PCB, substrates and mature nodes in 2027–2028, as well as valuation volatility from the ongoing unwinding of US AI hardware positions.

Jumbo Sheen  Fund

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