Prev
Click the blue text and follow us
✦
JUMBO SHEEN
INVESTMENT
✦
Headlines
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index staged a 6.85% single-day rebound, yet divergence within the sector widened: On November 9, the SOX Index rose 6.85% to 9,958 points, recouping roughly 10% of its losses from the sharp sell-off on November 5. AMD surged nearly 20% over two trading days and fully recovered its prior losses, while NVIDIA bucked the trend and fell 4.22%, marking its lowest closing level in seven months.
The dividing line between wafer foundry and memory manufacturing is materially blurring: TSMC is planning 3D DRAM capacity at NVIDIA’s request. The base die for NVHBM will be fabricated by TSMC on its 3nm process, marking the first time Samsung has outsourced part of its HBM production. The memory supply model is shifting from “memory vendors supplying finished products” to a divided framework where customers undertake design, foundries handle manufacturing, and memory suppliers provide core DRAM layers.
Terafab’s capacity targets have been disclosed: Musk’s joint venture plant has informed semiconductor equipment suppliers that it aims to reach a monthly output of 1 million wafers by 2032, 700,000 of which will be allocated to memory chips — a figure comparable to Samsung’s current monthly DRAM capacity of 650,000–700,000 wafers.
The high-end photoresist landscape is being reshaped: Mitsui Chemicals, together with the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ), will acquire all shares of JSR from the Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) for 1.84 trillion yen (approximately USD 11.65 billion / RMB 77.7 billion). The transaction is expected to close in the second half of FY2027, further consolidating the photoresist sector.
Concrete measures have followed the easing of China-U.S. trade and economic tensions: The Ministry of Commerce announced it will extend the suspension of export controls on 16 U.S. entities for another two months, effective November 10. Separately, reports indicate around 600,000 high-end NVIDIA chips are held in Hong Kong pending import approvals.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: At its earnings briefing on November 9, Cambridge Technology explicitly refuted rumors of order cuts by its major North American customer. The company stated that demand for high-speed optical modules remains robust; it has placed advance orders for multiple key materials and locked in production capacity, maintaining high capacity utilization as it prepares for mass deliveries in 2027. New demand-side support has emerged: China Mobile disclosed that its total procurement budget for 2027 will exceed RMB 500 billion, with computing power investment surpassing RMB 100 billion. It plans to build five gigawatt-scale intelligent computing parks over this year and next. Shennan Circuits also reported strong order books for AI servers, high-speed switches, optical modules and processor substrates. No major new updates were released for CPO or silicon photonics segments.
Advanced Packaging & Testing:The copper-nickel-gold bumping solution from Huatian Technology has been ramped into mass production. The certified yield across full 8-inch and 12-inch processes matches that of gold bumps, with a Cpk (Process Capability Index) above 1.67, offering a new cost-reduction route for advanced packaging. On the materials side, Anji Technology revealed that its IC Damascus plating solutions, TSV plating solutions and additives are already mass-produced and sold. Its tin-silver plating chemistry for advanced packaging is undergoing validation as scheduled, and expanded production lines at its Jinqiao (Shanghai) and Beilun (Ningbo) bases have come online. No new orders or validation progress were reported for domestic substitution of ABF films, IC substrates, CBF, NBF and GBF; the sector remains supply-constrained.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: The U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Capital Office issued a conditional loan commitment of USD 75 million to Halo Industries, expected to draw matching private capital, to expand SiC wafer manufacturing capacity for defense, AI data centers and high-voltage power electronics. Halo replaces diamond wire sawing with multi-step laser dicing, which substantially cuts material loss and boosts throughput up to tenfold. This marks a reverse bet on the domestic U.S. SiC supply chain, following ON Semiconductor’s cancellation of its USD 2 billion expansion project in the Czech Republic. A latest report from Jiwei Consulting judges that SiC substrate prices have bottomed out and rebounded, signalling the arrival of an industry inflection point.
Memory & Compute Chips: An in-depth report by Jiwei notes that TSMC’s “partial memory” roadmap is now clear: starting from HBM packaging via CoWoS, moving to HBM base die foundry services, and progressing to planned 3D DRAM manufacturing, each step stays within its existing capability envelope. Memory vendors will retain their full competitive advantages in the short term (around 2027), while customised interfaces will gradually erode their pricing power in the medium term (2028–2030). Google announced it will launch TPU 8tx and 8i Max next year; the 8i Max packages two chips together to lift computing power and memory capacity. Industry forecasts put its TPU-related revenue above USD 135 billion by 2028, compared with approximately USD 12 billion this year. Separately, Netlist filed a Section 337 investigation petition with the ITC covering DRAM, NAND equipment and downstream products.
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials: A holding subsidiary of Tsinghua Optoelectronics plans to invest no more than RMB 1.5 billion in Phase III of its high-end photomask project, covering 28nm to 14nm nodes. Phase I is already operational and Phase II is under construction. The current domestic localization rate for photomasks stands at roughly 10%, with domestic players accelerating development toward more advanced process nodes. JSR’s acquisition by the Mitsui Chemicals group further consolidates control over ArF immersion and EUV photoresist supply within Japanese conglomerates, creating a more complex validation timeline and bargaining environment for domestic photoresist suppliers.
Wafer Foundry: Samsung’s wafer fab in Taylor, Texas, will begin trial runs as early as December and enter mass production in 2027. The site will deploy its 2nm process to manufacture Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chips, as the global race for overseas 2nm capacity enters equipment commissioning. No new capacity or pricing updates were announced for SMIC or Hua Hong Semiconductor.
Policy & Macro Environment: The Ministry of Commerce has implemented consensus reached during the 8th round of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, extending the suspension of measures specified in Announcement No.21 of 2025 for another two months effective November 10. Export licenses for dual-use items involving the 16 U.S. entities may be applied for under established procedures. Market-wise, CME data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 84.2%. Morgan Stanley kept its forecast for large cloud capex at USD 1.6 trillion in 2027 and USD 1.8 trillion in 2028, but warned that around 20% of 2028 data center projects could be pushed back to 2029.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Divergent quality behind the rebound: The index recovery was mainly driven by broad gains across equipment, memory, and optical communications. However, NVIDIA has consistently underperformed while AMD led the rally, indicating capital is rebalancing away from the “single GPU narrative” toward ASICs, memory, and equipment & materials. Chasing highs in the GPU industrial chain warrants caution over event-specific risks for individual stocks.
2. Two-sided pressure on materials: The consolidation of JSR has increased concentration in overseas photoresist supply. Meanwhile, China’s suspension of relevant control measures lasts only two months and is reversible. This reinforces the rationale for domestic substitution in bottleneck segments including photoresist, photomasks and ABF films. It is critical to distinguish enterprises with genuine mass-production orders from those still in the validation phase.
Jumbo Sheen FundDisclaimer:The content involved in this article is for sharing and exchange purposes only, and shall not be construed as investment advice. It is provided merely for readers' reference. All copyrights of the quoted content belong to the original authors. If any infringement is found, please contact us for removal.
