Daily Semiconductor Investment Insight | August 13, 2026

Click the blue text and follow us

✦

JUMBO SHEEN

INVESTMENT

✦

Headlines

US semiconductor stocks staged a broad‑based rally: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 3.3 % on August 12, led by the memory segment (SK Hynix +7.7 %, Micron +7.0 %, SanDisk +7.2 %, Kioxia ADR +7.8 %). The Nasdaq Composite extended its gain by 0.54 % on August 13, while SK Hynix advanced more than 9 % again, as the memory super‑cycle thesis received capital validation.

South Korea’s chip exports surged 155.4 % year‑on‑year to USD 9.95 billion in early August (Aug 1‑10), accounting for 46.8 % of the country’s total exports. According to SIA statistics, global semiconductor sales reached USD 403.3 billion in 2026 Q2, rising 35.1 % quarter‑on‑quarter to a new quarterly record.

TSMC’s CoWoS with 5.5× reticle size has entered mass production. Product yields for AI customers are steadily above 98 %, hitting 99 % for some products. TSMC plans to scale up to 14× reticle size by 2029, further widening its technological edge in advanced packaging.

Optical‑communication earnings reports validate strong industry prosperity: Lumentum delivered broad‑based beats on last‑quarter revenue, profit and guidance (post‑market gain >13 %). Coherent’s first‑quarter guidance of USD 2.2‑2.4 billion exceeded expectations, yet its stock dropped more than 5 % after hours. LightCounting estimates a severe 40 % supply‑demand gap for 1.6T optical modules, with order backlogs stretching into 2028.

Per TrendForce forecasts, AMD and NVIDIA’s combined market share in China’s high‑end AI chip market will drop to 10 % in 2026, while domestic chips (Huawei, Cambricon and custom ASICs from major domestic players) will capture 90 % of the market.

In-depth Analysis

Optical Communications / Optical Chips: The US‑listed optical‑communication sector staged a strong performance, with Lumentum surging over 13 %, Coherent rising more than 8 %, and Corning up over 5 %. According to LightCounting data, global optical‑module sales reached USD 26.8 billion in 2025, a 74 % year‑on‑year increase. Sales hit approximately USD 10 billion in 2026 Q1, jumping 90 % year‑on‑year. Demand for 1.6T optical modules stands at roughly 25 million units in 2026 against effective capacity of only 15 million units, translating into a 40 % supply‑demand gap. On August 12, the CPO concept rebounded in the A‑share market: Yongding Co., Ltd. hit the 10 % daily up‑limit, and TFC Communication climbed over 10 %. Main‑fund net inflow into the communication sector reached RMB 12.296 billion.

Advanced Packaging: He Jun, Vice‑President of TSMC, confirmed that 5.5×‑reticle‑size CoWoS has entered mass production with yields above 98 % (99 % for some products). TSMC plans to scale up to a 14× reticle size by 2029, accelerating iteration in advanced‑packaging technologies. Synopsys announced the completion of validation for the world’s first HBM4 IP test chip with 9.2 Gbps end‑to‑end interconnection. Lam Research plans to hire around 200 additional staff in Singapore for roles covering HBM, 2.5D/3D integration, silicon photonics, CPO and panel‑level packaging. The leading equipment vendor ramps up its footprint in advanced packaging and co‑packaged optics.

SiC / Third‑Generation Semiconductors: No major updates today. Recent news for the SiC sector remains limited to existing information such as CCTC Electronics’ robust order books and high capacity‑utilization rates, with no new catalysts.

Memory & Computing Chips: US‑listed memory stocks rallied for two consecutive trading days. AI‑chip maker Cerebras reported Q2 revenue of USD 180.1 million, missing market expectations and plunging 17 % in after‑hours trading. This highlights that high‑valuation names are highly sensitive to earnings delivery. Microsoft targets launching its in‑house‑developed Maia 300 AI chip as early as September and has negotiated capacity for more than 300,000 units with TSMC for delivery in 2027. Samsung confirmed the adoption of Anthropic’s Claude model for semiconductor R&D. The validation cycle for custom SoCs has been shortened from one month to two days, representing roughly a 15‑fold efficiency gain.

Equipment & Materials: TSMC’s board approved a capital budget of approximately USD 29.44 billion. Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA all rose 3‑4 % on the US market. Equipment demand remains robust, driven by memory capacity expansion and advanced‑packaging build‑outs.

Policy / Macro Backdrop: Shanghai issued the 15th‑Five‑Year‑Plan for its software and information‑service industry, promoting deep integration between home‑grown chips and mainstream large‑language models around GPU/NPU, CPO, HBM and heterogeneous servers. The US July CPI print (consensus forecast: 3.4 % YoY) is imminent; mild inflation would ease rate‑hike concerns. The China‑South‑Korea Semiconductor ETF was suspended on August 13 due to premium valuation. Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz remain a geopolitical risk factor.

Daily Investment Tips

1. Optical‑communication and advanced‑packaging sectors have entered a dual‑validation phase of “earnings + technology”. With a 40 % supply‑demand gap for 1.6T optical modules and TSMC’s mass‑produced CoWoS achieving yields above 98 %, certainty over prosperity improves for upstream links including optical chips, packaging substrates and equipment within the industrial chain. Allocation opportunities after valuation pull‑backs merit attention.

2. Risk Warning: Coherent beat expectations on guidance yet tumbled more than 5 % in after‑hours trading; Cerebras missed earnings estimates and dropped 17 %. This demonstrates that the market holds stringent requirements for earnings delivery from high‑valuation AI‑hardware names. Meanwhile, monitor disruptions to global‑semiconductor risk sentiment stemming from US CPI data and developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

Jumbo Sheen  Fund

Disclaimer:The content involved in this article is for sharing and exchange purposes only, and shall not be construed as investment advice. It is provided merely for readers' reference. All copyrights of the quoted content belong to the original authors. If any infringement is found, please contact us for removal.