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Nvidia is scheduled to release its earnings after the US market close on August 26. As the world’s top-valued stock and a bellwether for AI computing power, the market is closely focused on its memory cost pressure and guidance for CoWoS/CPO capacity. Price increase notifications have been sent to major clients, with AI servers generally marked up by over 15%.
Alibaba announced a HKD 80 billion Hong Kong share placement, with all proceeds to be invested in AI infrastructure development, further escalating the global AI arms race and reinforcing the thesis of expanding capital expenditure among cloud vendors.
The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission issued the Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Cyberspace Enterprises (2026–2030), which explicitly calls for breakthroughs in key core technologies including high-end chips and foundational software, adding further policy backing for the self-reliance and controllability of the semiconductor sector.
STMicroelectronics implemented its third price hike of the year on August 23, extending lead times for automotive MCUs and power devices. Global majors such as Texas Instruments and Infineon have followed suit, spreading the price rally from power/analog chips to MCUs.
Zhang Jianping newly became the ninth-largest shareholder of Innolight. Industrial capital has increased holdings in the leading optical module maker. Coupled with confirmed robust demand for 800G/1.6T products in interim financial results, the allocation value of computing hardware has won endorsement from capital.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communication / Optical Chips: No major new updates for the day. Over the weekend, it was compiled that Zhang Jianping newly became the ninth-largest shareholder of Innolight. Interim results showed key clients are ramping up capital expenditure with markedly rising demand for high-end optical modules. Citi forecasts combined shipments of CPO and NPO will soar from 400,000 units in 2026 to 56 million units in 2028. NPO will enter a prime volume ramp period from 2026 to 2028. The CPO industrial chain remains buoyant yet lacks near-term catalysts.
Advanced Packaging: No major new developments today. TSMC continues to face severe CoWoS capacity constraints and a heavy order backlog. Institutional investors favor spillover beneficiaries including ASE Group and substrate leader Unimicron. Advanced packaging in mainland China is seeing rapid penetration of CoWoS technology, sustaining the valuation re-rating thesis for the packaging and testing sector. The market awaits the next set of order or price-hike signals.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: STMicroelectronics implemented its third price increase of the year on August 23, extending lead times for automotive MCUs and power devices. Texas Instruments, Infineon and other global peers followed suit, broadening the price rally to MCUs and analog chips. In addition, Taiwanese power semiconductor manufacturers plan to raise prices of non-contract products by 10–15% starting October. Amid the inaugural rollout of the 800V HVDC architecture, the demand thesis for SiC/GaN remains intact, though stock prices in the sector have partially priced in expectations in the short term.
Storage & Compute Chips: Some of NVIDIA’s largest customers have been notified that many servers equipped with NVIDIA AI chips will see price hikes of over 15% amid skyrocketing memory chip costs, making memory cost pressure a core variable for AI server pricing. NVIDIA’s earnings release on August 26 will serve as a critical bellwether for the HBM and storage supply chain. Yangtze Memory’s STAR Market IPO application has been accepted, with a planned fundraising of RMB 33 billion, a record high for the STAR Market.
Equipment & Materials: Order backlogs at major Korean semiconductor equipment vendors have doubled since the end of last year, driven by large-scale capacity expansion at Samsung and SK Hynix. Storage test equipment is seeing structural growth thanks to rising HBM stacking layers and upgraded interface speeds. Brokerage strategy reports generally recommend adding positions on dips in semiconductor equipment and materials with high visibility.
Wafer Fabrication: No major new developments today. Positive factors including SMIC’s better-than-expected Q2 results and its Q3 gross margin guidance of 26–28% have been priced in. Southbound funds net-purchased 59.86 million SMIC shares this week, reflecting sustained inflows of short-term capital.
Policy & Macro Environment: The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission issued the Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Cyberspace Enterprises (2026–2030). The document prioritizes breakthroughs in high-end chips and foundational software, and guides the coordinated deployment of new computing infrastructure and renewable energy. The long-term narrative that export controls are driving self-reliance and controllability of the computing supply chain remains unchanged.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Keep close track of NVIDIA’s earnings release on August 26. The extent to which memory price hikes weigh on gross margins and its guidance for CoWoS/CPO capacity expansion will determine the near-term trend across the entire AI hardware chain. The computing hardware segment may stay volatile at high levels ahead of the earnings print, with risks of swings after results are announced.
2. The price-rally wave is spreading from power and analog chips to a full spectrum of MCUs and passive components (ST has implemented three price hikes this year, followed by TI and Infineon). Analog, power and MCU players with pricing flexibility, as well as upstream materials including substrates, copper foil and electronic specialty gases, remain the most definitive investment themes for now. However, pullback risks should be guarded against once price-increase expectations become overly priced in.
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