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Samsung unveiled its next‑generation memory strategy. HBM5 targets double the performance of HBM4E, while zHBM is set to deliver an eight‑fold improvement. Around 70% of its memory capacity through 2031 has been locked in via long‑term contracts. Spot prices for HBM have surged to four times the contract price, sustaining the memory super‑cycle.
Ming‑Chi Kuo reported that NVIDIA has restarted the Rubin CPX inference pre‑populated GPU project, scheduled for mass production in Q1 2027 with 168GB HBM4 and a 2,300W power envelope, accelerating the iteration cycle of AI compute chips.
At CSEAC 2026, Advanced Micro‑Fab released six new equipment models, including etchers for ultra‑high aspect‑ratio features (70‑90:1) and advanced PECVD systems. ASML has deployed 10 High‑NA EUV tools for operation. Import substitution for semiconductor equipment is advancing in tandem with global cutting‑edge process development.
Hua Hong Grace plans a capital increase of RMB 4.163 billion for Phase‑III construction of its 12‑inch specialty‑process fab in Wuxi, targeting a monthly capacity of 55,000 wafers and continuing capacity expansion for mature process nodes.
Escalating US‑Iran tensions pulled US equities lower overnight (SOX ‑3%, Nasdaq ‑1.03%), with geopolitical risks weighing on semiconductor risk appetite. Apple’s early launch of the Mac mini and Mac Studio validates surging enterprise demand for AI end‑side devices.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communication / Optical Chips：The half‑year reporting season for optical module makers has concluded. Industry leaders Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink posted a combined net profit exceeding RMB 21 billion, reflecting broad‑based prosperity across the full industrial chain. Zhongji Innolight initiated its RMB 4–8 billion share buyback programme for the first time on September 1, purchasing 374,100 shares at a cost of RMB 318 million, which lifted the CPO concept sector on the same trading day (Qingshan Paper hit the daily limit). Sichuan Jiuzhou plans to acquire a 6.25% equity stake in Jiuzhou Optoelectronics for RMB 18.2462 million to strengthen its capabilities for 800G/1.6T high‑speed optical modules. Feinan Resources has commenced mass production of 4N7 high‑purity indium, fueling the upcycle for indium phosphide substrates, the “compute‑power metal”. On the risk side, the US optical‑communication segment traded broadly lower overnight (Corning and Marvell fell more than 3%), pointing to heightened volatility at elevated share‑price levels.
Advanced Packaging & Testing：No major fresh developments for the day. Domestic substitution of advanced packaging materials drew heightened attention during CSEAC 2026 (Wuxi, August 31 – September 2). Institutions note that the self‑sufficiency rate for such materials remains extremely low; import substitution paired with iterative demand is poised to drive high‑growth momentum for relevant suppliers. Cost pressures on packaging substrates merit monitoring amid price hikes for upstream electronic glass fabrics from China Jushi (September thick fabric +15%, thin fabric +20%). After the sharp pullback of the glass‑fabric sector on September 1, leading manufacturers responded that capacity expansion will be deployed as a countermeasure.
SiC / Power Semiconductors: No notable updates today. On the equipment front, Advanced Micro‑Fab unveiled the PRISMO PDS8 high‑temperature SiC epitaxial growth system, adding a new product to China’s domestic SiC equipment portfolio. BYD’s new‑generation 4D millimeter‑wave radar chip, manufactured on a 28 nm automotive‑grade process, has entered mass production, marking steady adoption of automotive‑spec chips.
Storage & Compute Chips: Samsung laid out clear roadmaps: HBM5 will deliver double the performance of the current generation, zHBM eight‑fold improvement, with zNAND‑O sampling scheduled for 2028. Roughly 70% of Samsung’s memory capacity through 2031 is locked under long‑term agreements with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google and other hyperscalers. Fierce competition for HBM supplies has pushed spot prices to four times the contract price. Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook for rising memory prices and keeps its Buy ratings on Samsung and SK Hynix. Ingenic Semiconductor expects DRAM prices to keep climbing in Q3 with further gains in Q4. Nation‑Semi intends to invest RMB 60 million for an equity stake in Nanjing Youcun Technology to strengthen its customised NOR Flash capabilities.
Equipment & Materials: Advanced Micro‑Fab launched the Primo XD‑RIE etcher for ultra‑high 70‑90:1 aspect‑ratio features optimised for advanced memory, the Performo QuaStar ON advanced PECVD system for 3D NAND stack deposition, alongside ALD, metal thin‑film and SiC epitaxy tools. ASML reported that 10 High‑NA EUV systems are operational at four global customers, with three additional units in shipment en route to mass‑production readiness. SEMI revised upwards its forecast for worldwide semiconductor industry revenue, projecting it to surpass USD 1.5 trillion in 2026 and USD 2 trillion by 2030, with demand broadening from chips into equipment, testing, advanced packaging and materials. The semiconductor equipment ETF recorded a net subscription of 378 million shares on September 1.
Wafer Fabrication: Hua Hong Grace intends to jointly raise RMB 4.163 billion with multiple parties for Phase III of its 12‑inch specialty‑process fab in Wuxi, targeting a monthly capacity of approximately 55,000 wafers and a registered capital of USD 4.17 billion for the project. Yuexin Semiconductor obtained STAR Market registration approval. SMIC fell more than 2% in Hong Kong trading on September 1.
Policy & Macro Environment: Escalated US‑Iran geopolitical tensions (US strikes on Iran; Iranian missile attacks against US troops stationed in Jordan) sent international oil prices surging (WTI settled at USD 90.22 per barrel, +5.2%). The three major US indices closed lower, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 3%. Shenzhen Securities Information announced the September 4 launch of the ChiNext Chip Index (970096), composed of 50 constituent stocks. The MSCI China Index rebalancing took effect, adding seven STAR‑market chip names including Core‑Source Micro and Huafeng Test & Control. The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund reduced its holding in VeriSilicon below the 5% threshold. Apple’s new CEO Ternus officially assumed office with an annual salary raised to USD 3 million.
Daily Investment Tips
1. The thesis for rising memory prices continues to strengthen, backed by Samsung’s capacity lock‑ins, HBM spot prices at four‑fold contract levels, and bullish calls from Goldman Sachs. Focus on beneficiaries across the domestic memory supply chain (Changxin / Yangtze Memory) and their upstream equipment and material suppliers. Nevertheless, caution is warranted over margin erosion for downstream end‑device players caused by exorbitant memory costs: Apple’s Mac lineup has faced multi‑month shortages, while some enterprise clients are shifting toward NVIDIA’s DGX Spark platform.
2. Escalating US‑Iran tensions have lifted oil prices and inflation expectations, weighing on semiconductor valuations in the short run (SOX ‑3%). Against this geopolitical backdrop, themes centred on supply‑chain security and domestic substitution stand to outperform. Equipment localisation (volume ramp‑ups for Advanced Micro‑Fab’s new tools and High‑NA EUV mass production) together with AI compute demand (the Rubin CPX project restart) remain the medium‑to‑long‑term high‑conviction investment paths.
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