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Q2 US 13F filings were released in batches, revealing notable divergence among institutional semiconductor holdings. Gao Yi substantially increased its positions in Micron (+283.48 %) and SanDisk (+192 %), while cutting its NVIDIA stake by 72.41 %. HHLR Management boosted holdings in NVIDIA as well as optical‑communication names including Coherent, Corning and Lumentum. Duan Yongping’s H&H reduced its NVIDIA position by 54.63 % and liquidated its entire TSMC stake. Duquesne, controlled by Druckenmiller, flipped to build up TSMC ADRs, making it the fund’s second‑largest holding at 6.5 % of portfolio weight.
Fujian issued its 15th‑Five‑Year Plan for emerging industries, setting clear targets to foster four key tracks: integrated circuits, compound semiconductors, new‑generation displays and optoelectronic components. Local policies continue to ramp up support for the full semiconductor industrial chain.
The global de‑leveraging cycle for AI‑themed trades is drawing to a close. Overseas institutions anticipate an imminent reversal in capital flows, potentially opening a new window for systematic position building. The tech‑recovery rally persists in the A‑share market, with active rotation across sub‑sectors such as CPO and optical fiber & cable.
The US‑listed memory chain remains robust (SanDisk posted a cumulative weekly gain of 35.38 %). Coupled with meaningful Q2 positioning increases in memory stocks by overseas long‑term capital, the memory‑sector boom receives cross‑validation from capital‑market flows.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: HHLR Management increased its Q2 holdings in overseas optical‑communication leaders including Coherent, Corning and Lumentum. This stands in directional contrast to Gao Yi’s full exit from Lumentum, yet overall reflects recognition of the optical‑communication boom among overseas long‑term capital. Since August, A‑share sub‑sectors such as CPO and optical fiber & cable have kept rotating higher. Institutions judge that optical‑communication capacity expansion has moved from planning to tangible capital expenditure, with the narratives of 1.6T optical‑module volume ramp‑up and CPO mass production remaining intact.
Advanced Packaging: No major updates today. No new announcements regarding CoWoS/FoCoS capacity additions, orders or price hikes emerged over the past two days. Positive news such as TSMC’s mass‑produced 5.5×‑reticle‑size CoWoS with yields above 98 % and Applied Materials’ forecast of over 70 % revenue growth for its packaging business in 2026 has been largely priced in. The segment awaits new catalysts.
SiC / Third‑Generation Semiconductors: No major updates today. No fresh order or pricing signals emerged on the industrial front in recent days. On the policy front, Fujian’s 15th‑Five‑Year Plan designates compound semiconductors (wide‑bandgap and ultra‑wide‑bandgap) as a key track for cultivation. Together with prior breakthroughs in GaN/SiC integration achieved by the Shenzhen platform of the National Third‑Generation‑Semiconductor Innovation Center, policy support continues. Nevertheless, sector catalysts still await validation from automotive‑grade adoption as well as volume and pricing data.
Memory & Computing Chips: 13F filings show notable institutional positioning build‑ups across the memory chain in Q2: Gao Yi boosted positions in Micron by 283.48 % and SanDisk by 192 %. US‑listed memory stocks maintained strong momentum, with SanDisk surging 35.38 % week‑on‑week, followed by Seagate, Western Digital and Micron. Investment flows keep validating the narratives of memory price hikes and “memory shortage”. Still, widening valuation divergence over leading AI‑compute players can be observed among some top‑tier funds (Duan Yongping liquidated his TSMC stake and cut NVIDIA holdings by 54.63 %).
Equipment & Materials: Expectations for tungsten price stabilization are building. The quoted price for 65 % tungsten concentrate holds at RMB 415,000 per metric‑ton unit. Institutions believe that emerging semiconductor‑material demand from AI PCBs and tungsten hexafluoride, coupled with the September‑October peak‑demand season, will likely stabilize and lift tungsten prices, benefiting the electronic‑specialty‑gas and precursor‑material chain.
Policy / Macro Backdrop: Fujian’s 15th‑Five‑Year Plan fosters four major tracks including integrated circuits. The global AI‑trade de‑leveraging cycle is nearing an end, easing capital‑side pressures. Druckenmiller returned to Chinese‑concept stocks after a two‑year hiatus and built positions in TSMC, signaling rising foreign‑investor attention toward Chinese assets and semiconductor leaders.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Institutional Q2 position adjustments reveal two major themes. The memory chain (Micron and SanDisk saw position increases) and optical‑communication sector (HHLR added holdings in Coherent, Lumentum and Corning) have won recognition from overseas long‑term capital. Investors may watch for capital‑flow resonance among A‑share leading memory‑module and optical‑module players. That said, Gao Yi fully liquidated its Lumentum stake, taking the opposite view from HHLR. This points to growing divergence at high valuations for optical‑communication names, calling for caution against volatility risks.
2. Watch for policy catalysts in third‑generation semiconductors. Fujian has designated compound semiconductors as one of the four key tracks in its 15th‑Five‑Year Plan. The roll‑out of local plans may bring thematic catalysts. Nevertheless, fresh order and pricing signals are currently absent. It is advisable to await validation from automotive‑grade adoption as well as volume‑and‑price data, and guard against pull‑back risks stemming from thematic speculation.
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