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CXMT surged 12 % to RMB 61.80 on August 17, with its total market capitalization breaking through RMB 4 trillion to RMB 4.13 trillion. It overtook Tencent to become the largest‑cap listed company on the A‑share market. Its projected H1 net profit attributable to parent stands at RMB 50‑57 billion, representing a year‑on‑year increase of 2244 %‑2544 %.
Jiwei Net Exclusive: Ajinomoto notified mainland‑China customers of a 30 % cut in ABF‑film supply. New Q3 order prices are expected to rise by roughly 30 %, with lead‑times extended to more than six months. This accelerates the opening of substitution opportunities for domestic CBF/NBF/GBF build‑up films.
US‑listed memory and optical‑communication stocks bucked the trend and advanced. Against a 0.3 % closing decline in the Nasdaq Composite, Kioxia ADR jumped over 13 %, SanDisk rose more than 8 %, Western Digital gained over 5 %, and Micron climbed over 4 %. Coherent advanced more than 7 %, while Corning and Lumentum both rose above 4 %.
NVIDIA announced a multi‑year partnership with SB Energy, providing residual‑value guarantees of up to USD 105 billion for OpenAI’s Ohio AI data center (supporting approximately 4.25 GW of IT load). OpenAI commits to large‑scale deployment of NVIDIA computing power by 2030, and the total compute scale between the two parties could reach USD 600 billion.
SMIC topped southbound net‑buy inflows at HKD 1.774 billion. JPMorgan lifted its target price to HKD 78. The company guided Q3 gross margin at 26 %‑28 %, well above the market consensus of around 22 %.
In-depth Analysis
Optical Communications / Optical Chips: Advanced Photonix reported H1 net profit of RMB 148 million, surging 186.09 % year‑on‑year (Q2 quarter‑on‑quarter growth: 131 %), driven by demand for high‑speed optical modules from AI computing power. Daheng Technology plans to acquire a 5 % stake in Zhongshi Optochip for RMB 111 million to enter the optical‑chip business. The A‑share optical‑module / CPO segment rallied broadly on August 17, with Tianyang New Materials notching four consecutive daily up‑limit gains. On the overseas side, Coherent, Corning and Lumentum rose more than 4 % overnight, and the mass‑production effect of NVIDIA’s CPO switches continues to unfold.
Advanced Packaging: Ajinomoto’s 30 % supply cut of ABF film for Chinese‑mainland customers has triggered a supply crisis. Ajinomoto holds over 95 % global market share for ABF film, running its monthly capacity of more than 2 million square meters at full utilization; new capacity will not come online until 2029‑2032. AI chip carrier boards have evolved to 8‑16 layers, multiplying ABF‑film consumption per chip. Multiple domestic‑substitution paths are advancing: Huazheng New Materials’ CBF film (5 μm line width, Phase‑1 capacity of 3 million ㎡ per annum, yield above 85 %) has passed qualification by Unictron and Shennan Circuits, with small‑batch shipments going to JCET and Huawei Ascend. Newface under Lianhua Holdings achieved technical breakthroughs for 9‑11‑layer NBF film, with pilot‑line annual capacity of roughly 1 million ㎡. Great Eastern’s GBF film has completed validation at leading packaging‑and‑testing houses; scaled‑up volume ramp‑up is scheduled for Q4 and it has been short‑listed for Huawei Ascend’s supply chain. A‑share packaging‑and‑testing names strengthened: TFME hit the daily up‑limit and JCET climbed over 5 %. Yingxin Development announced a RMB 1.779 billion private placement to expand memory packaging‑and‑testing and main‑control‑chip capacity.
Memory & Computing Chips: Less than one month after its IPO, CXMT’s market capitalization has sequentially broken four RMB‑trillion thresholds. Its Q1 revenue reached RMB 50.8 billion, up 719 % year‑on‑year, and net profit hit RMB 24.762 billion, an almost 17‑fold increase. Its global DRAM market share stands at approximately 8 %. SK Hynix unveiled a USD 720 billion global capacity‑expansion plan to double its production capacity within five years. Choi Tae‑won reiterated that next year will witness the most severe “memory shortage”. Cambricon rolled out its 2026 restricted‑stock incentive plan, granting 4 million shares to 944 employees at an exercise price of RMB 750 per share.
Equipment & Materials: A Shanghai Securities News survey indicates tailwinds for CMP materials. The shift toward high‑density and three‑dimensional wafer manufacturing fuels demand for polishing consumables, benefiting domestic CMP leaders such as Dinglong Co., Ltd. Xinfu Electronic posted 43.71 % H1 revenue growth amid robust demand for wet‑electronic chemicals. The semiconductor‑equipment ETF recorded net inflows for seven consecutive days totalling approximately RMB 1.91 billion. CITIC Construction Investment notes that domestic‑equipment components are seeing “rising volume and prices”.
Wafer Foundry: SMIC ranked first in southbound capital inflows in July. JPMorgan forecasts 30 % / 20 % year‑on‑year depreciation growth for 2026‑2027, and believes price hikes will serve as a sustainable driver for revenue and gross margin. Hong‑Kong‑listed chip stocks surged: Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable jumped over 12 %, and Hua Hong Semiconductor rose more than 7 %.
Policy / Macro Backdrop: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows July value‑added output for integrated‑circuit manufacturing rose 109.3 % year‑on‑year, while memory‑chip output increased 30.2 %. Half‑year reports from the PCB industrial chain delivered strong results; tight supply‑demand balance for high‑end HDI and high‑multilayer boards may persist into 2028. Bridgewater nearly liquidated its Micron position in Q2 (‑92 % reduction), reflecting widening foreign‑investor divergence over memory‑sector leaders.
Daily Investment Tips
1. Domestic substitution of ABF film represents the most resilient theme within the advanced‑packaging chain at present. Ajinomoto’s 30 % supply cut plus 30 % price hikes for Q3 act as tangible catalysts. Players including Huazheng New Materials, Lianhua Holdings and Great Eastern are entering a critical phase of qualification and on‑boarding. Nevertheless, gaps remain for high‑grade films for HBM applications with qualification cycles spanning 1‑3 years. It is necessary to differentiate thematic speculation from actual order delivery.
2. Short‑term crowding risks are mounting in the memory segment. CXMT features a small free‑float share base and highly concentrated ownership. Its RMB 4‑trillion market‑cap valuation embeds substantial forward expectations. Volatility is rising for US‑listed memory stocks following sharp consecutive rallies, compounded by stake reductions from foreign investors such as Bridgewater. Caution is advised against chasing highs. Monitor H1 earnings delivery in late August as well as validation from HBM supply‑demand statistics.
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